2025 Boys Postseason #2 - Nov. 5.
by Admin on 11/05/25
November 5, 2025 - Districts o’Plenty (Blog #2)
Two days of early round district play on beautiful Fall nights in MO lead us into another perfect Wednesday night and our first championship match. In C1, #3 Metro takes on #23 Brentwood in the first final of the week. Metro has already topped Brentwood this year 7-1 and sit as +1.62 MPR favorites. Everywhere else tonight will have 17 semifinals and 33 1-4 seeds filling those spots. The only exception is #5 seed Lutheran (KC) who has a big challenge against #4 Barstow on tap. #32 Lutheran is coming off the biggest upset win (-1.93) of the tournament after eliminating #11 Frontier 2-1 in 2OT earlier.
So far we’ve had 120 playoff games and only six would be considered real upsets, although several top seeds did have some close calls in early round games. We’ve also had 14 games decided with extra time or penalties.
In C4, #5 Rock Bridge outscored #39 Grain Valley 5-4 to advance and #3 Ladue gutted out a 1-0 win over #25 Parkway South. Defending champ SLUH came in as huge favorites over #47 Eureka but had to hold to a 1-0 win. Tonight’s spotlight games are in Republic at the D5 semis. #14 Glendale is favored over the host school in one semi, while rivals #28 Nixa and #19 Ozark are separated by just .18 in the MPR. D4 has the Backyard Bash with #9 Ft. Zumwalt West (+1.26) and #38 Timberland in one semi and #12 St. Dominic (+.24) battling #16 Liberty in the other. The D8 semis also kick off tonight - the spotlight there on Liberty teams. #15 and Liberty and #17 Liberty North are basically dead even. Liberty has just one loss on the year - to top seed #29 Park Hill South - which basically cost the Blue Jays the 1 seed.
C3 has also had a few scary moments for top seeded and #1 Chaminade. The Red Devils had all they could handle with a solid #6 Parkway Central squad before winning 1-0 in what could be the most competitive district in that class. #2 Westminster and #7 Priory face off in the other semi there tonight at Priory for the right to play Chaminade. Tonight also has the top four seeds in D7 in action at Pembroke Hill. The #9 hosts are favored over Belton, while #12 St. Michael has a +1.14 advantage over#47 Raytown in the other semi.
C2 defending champ and D2 2-seed Clayton is #2 overall in the class, but faces a challenging few days if it wants a shot at repeating. Clayton plays 19-win #8 Bayless in the semis, while top-seed Affton is #3 in the MPR. #10 Lutheran South hopes to pull the upset there on its home turf. Should be a great night there. A couple of minor upsets pushed 3 seeds into finals. #31 St. Pius X (Festus) pounded 2-seed Sullivan 7-0 in D1, while #17 Southern Boone avenged an earlier loss to #15 Kirksville. SBC will play #11 and top seed Father Tolton Thursday.
C1 also has D6 action tonight with 1-seed Laquey (#16) and 4-seed Fair Grove (#13) are actually flipped in MPR so the 4-seed is slightly favored, while #9 Dixon (+.43) and #17 Greenwood play in the other semi.
Coming tomorrow…a 5-year look at how the MPR has worked when predicting matchups. For all you numbers folks out there, this will be a fun look into how our model has improved with predictions and how rank matchups going forward. As always, soccer “math” doesn’t always work out because the game has that significant factor (like hockey) where 1) it’s difficult to score and 2) GK’s can make a huge difference in results (see: USA Hockey 1980 Miracle on Ice).
