MO Soccer Blog

November 15, 2025 - Quarterfinals! (Blog #6)

And then there were eight. 

District play is over and eight schools have advanced in each class to the state quarterfinals today at odd numbered district winner sites. The first team listed is the host school.

In C1, a wild and unfortunate situation has eliminated the overall #2 team, St. Mary’s, clearing the way for last year’s C1 champ, Valley Park, to represent D1 in the quarters. The full story is here, but essentially, St. Mary’s used ineligible players in their 4-0 championship game win over Valley Park Tuesday and were forced to forfeit the title. 

#12 Valley Park vs. #3 Metro (+.78)
#1 Veritas (+2.08) vs. #26 Fatima
#27 Stover vs. #16 Laquey (+.99)
#6 Lone Jack (+.28) vs. #8 Faith Christian 

C2 still has its overall #1 in Springfield Catholic. The Irish are heavily favored in the final group of eight that otherwise is full of similar teams who all survived district play. Catholic does have the most difficult quarter, facing #5 Marshall.  #8 Bayless lurks across the bracket, fresh off eliminating #2 Clayton and #3 Affton. 

#13 Perryville vs. #8 Bayless (+.19)
#18 Principia vs. #11 Father Tolton (+.23)
#1 Springfield Catholic (+1.09) vs. #5 Marshall 
#16 Harrisonville (+.34) vs. #24 Maryville

C3 looks to be wide open with the most intriguing game pitting two teams in the top 10 who had to maneuver difficult districts to advance. #7 Priory has already shocked #1 Chaminade and #2 Westminster, while #4 Ft. Zumwalt East had to get by a rivalry game with #8 Ft. Zumwalt South, 2-1. Watch out for a strong run from #3 Van Horn, last year’s 4th place finisher. The Falcons have already defeated the other three squads Summit Christian (twice), Carl Junction and St. Michael and are on a  20-game winning streak.

#22 Notre Dame (Cape) vs. #5 Rockwood Summit (+1.06)
#7 Priory vs. #4 Ft. Zumwalt East (+.34)
#10 Summit Christian (+.62) vs. #21 Carl Junction 
#12 St. Michael vs. #3 Van Horn (+.77)

C4 features #1 Rockhurst, a team unblemished on the year, vs. traditionally strong Glendale for the right to face the winner between upstart Blue Springs South and Park Hill South. Vianney started 2-5-2, but has figured it out  a bit of late and will see familiar foe and defending champ SLUH, a team Vianney knocked off 3-2 in late October. The best match of the C4 quarters might be Francis Howell and Ft. Zumwalt West, but both will have to find ways to repeat the high level of play needed to get past their district rivals last week. Howell edged Howell Central and FZW took out perennial power St. Dominic.

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November 9, 2025 - All About the District Championships (Blog #5)

Time to catch up on a short slate of games from Friday and Saturday and give a little preview to the 15 championships (almost half!) yet to be played Monday and Tuesday.

Friday’s action favored the underdogs as all three favorites went down in finals play. In C2, D2 Bayless continued its impressive postseason roll with another huge win over a higher-ranked squad. This time the #8 Bronchos took out #3 Affton 4-1, just two nights after eliminating last year’s C2 champ and #2 Clayton. Coach Dave Pozzo’s squad posted arguably the best district run so far - at least for one night (more on that in a bit).  The C3 final that night at #9 Pembroke Hill was much closer. #12 St. Michael used a 2nd half goal and some stellar defensive play to knock out the Raiders and avenger an earlier loss. Pretty similar events happened just down the road in the C1 D7 final between #4 host Barstow and #6 Lone Jack. Lone Jack held on for a 2-1 win, also getting payback for an early season loss to the Knights. 

The only semi on Friday was actually the continuation of a match started Thursday but postponed due to a lighting outage. C4 D3 #3 Ladue and #7 Parkway West picked right back off where they left and even ended up playing most of a full 80 before Ladue got the golden goal, setting off a wild celebration at Parkway South. That district hosted six of the state’s top 25 and will be settled between #2 SLUH and Ladue Monday.

While Bayless’ run has been impressive, one can argue that Priory’s week was just as good, if not better. HOF Coach John Mohrmann’s squad ousted BOTH the #1 and 2 teams within just a few days of each other. On Saturday #7 Priory shocked #1 Chaminade with a 2nd half goal that evened it at 2 and then punched in the game-winner in the first OT in front of a packed crowd at Priory. The Ravens had sent #2 Westminster Christian home Wednesday, winning 2-0. 
 
Two other C3 finals were settled Saturday. #10 Summit Christian continued its strong year with a 2-0 win at #15 Capital City. The Eagles led 1-0 after a scramble in the box goal after a restart and were buoyed by a huge penalty stop in the waning moments of the first half. SCA scored a second goal early in the second half en route to a 2-0 win. #5 Rockwood Summit rallied on the road to take out #13 Webster Groves. Summit equalized in the second half and won it in OT with the golden goal finish. A difficult loss for the Statesmen who dropped both games by a goal to the rival Falcons.

As mentioned, we still have 15 more to settle and over half are within “upset range” (0-.48) according to the MPR. This year the average upset has been by .46.

C1 Finals Monday:
D4 #7 Christian Fellowship (+1.52) at # Fatima.
D6 #16 Laquey (+.04) at #17 Greenwood.
D8 #8 Faith Christian (+1.32) at #25 Northland Christian.

C2 Finals Monday:
D6 #5 Marshall (+.37 ) vs. #12 Helias at Knob Noster.

C3 Finals Monday:
D1 #22 Notre Dame (Cape) (+.45) vs. #38 Poplar Bluff at Cape Central.
D6 #21 Carl Junction (+.55) vs. #41 Webb City at Parkview.
D8 #3 Van Horn (+1.04) vs. #18 Lincoln Prep at Van Horn.

C4 Finals Monday:
D1 #4 Oakville (+.94) vs. #24 Vianney at Lindbergh
D2 #2 SLUH (+.06) vs. #3 Ladue at Parkway South
D3 #8 Francis Howell Central (+.14) vs. #11 Francis Howell at Howell Central.
D5 #14 Glendale (+.48) vs. #28 Nixa at Republic.
D8 #29 Park Hill South vs. #17 Liberty North (+.40) at Staley.

Tuesday Finals:
C1, D1 #1 St. Mary’s (+1.02) vs. #12 Valley Park at St. Mary’s.
C1, D3 #2 Veritas (+1.14) vs. #15 Lutheran North at Veritas.
C3, D4 #4 Ft. Zumwalt East (+.40) vs. #8 Ft. Zumwalt South at FZE.

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November 7, 2025 - What a Night! (Blog #4)

We even got shorted a game (more on that in a bit) from the original 35-game schedule, but Thursday did not disappoint. Nine teams punched their tickets for the playoffs (six in C2) and 25 others advanced. As expected, we had our share of shockers, close calls and drama that comes with local teams playing each other this time of the year. There is a certain intangible factor that pops into district play that gets emphasized when teams are meeting up for more than the first time in a season as many of the games last night featured rival teams very familiar with each other.

On tap for tonight and our segue into what happened to our 35th game last night…only four games (one in each class) and one of those was already partially played. #3 Ladue (+.45) and #7 Parkway West only got about 13 minutes into the scoreless match before having to stop due to the lights not working at Parkway South. They’ll resume with a drop ball tonight in the weirdest game “start” of the season.

The other three matches should be Friday Night Light dandies, soccer-style. In C1, D7 #4 Barstow (+.02) and #6 Lone Jack will sort that championship at Barstow, basically dead even based on the MPR. Barstow topped LJ 1-0 earlier in the year on that same field. C2 will get its 7th state qualifier tonight in a matchup of 20-win teams in D2. #3 Affton (+.53) is slightly favored over #8 Bayless, but the Broncos are riding high after eliminating last year’s champ Clayton in the semis. A couple of private school powers hook up in KC C3, D7. #9 Pembroke Hill (+.22) hosts #12 St. Michael in a rematch of an earlier game that saw PH get a 2-1 win on the road. The Guardians are coming off a 2nd place C2 finish last season.

A quick peak at Saturday’s four games - all finals - with three of them coming in C3. Note that all three “underdogs” in C3 are actually hosting those games, which could turn into an equalizer for those deficits.

C3, D2: #5 Rockwood Summit (+.62) at #13 Webster Groves
C3, D3: #1 Chaminade (+1.03) at #7 Priory
C3, D5: #10 Summit Christian (+.41) at #15 Capital City
C4, D4: #9 Ft. Zumwalt West (+.20) vs. #12 St. Dominic

Back to Thursday…

When it comes to C1 playoff soccer, “chaos” is often the term of the day. The one final in the class was as chaotic as it gets. #5 Sacred Heart (+1.72) and #27 Stover hooked up for the third time this year at Smithton with the favored Gremlins already owning two wins over the Bulldogs this year. Stover stunned Sacred Heart with two goals in the opening 20 minutes, but SH knotted it at 2 just six minutes later. The Gremlins went ahead midway through the second half and seemed poised to make its third consecutive playoff appearance, but Stover hit two almost identical 30+ yard bombs within 45 seconds of each other with 13 to play and held on for the huge upset, 4-3. The Bulldogs make just their second playoff appearance ever, with the first coming in 2023.

The rest of the C1 night went pretty much as planned, but 2 seeds Lutheran North and defending champ Valley Park both struggled in 1-0 semi wins over STEAM and Hancock, respectively. The top two squads in C1 #1 Veritas and #2 St. Mary’s each advanced to finals with three-goal wins.

Oh, and before we move on…the answer to yesterday’s trivia of course happened in C1. The largest upset recorded in the past five years and the only one ever to be over 2.00 in the MPR was actually a 3.45 difference when Northland Christian knocked out Frontier STEM 3-1 in 2024.

More “chaos in C1” proof:
In the past 5 years, C1’s MPR totals are the hardest to predict. Anything with two teams within .40 has been 50%, while .41-.99 is a 20% upset chance. By comparison, a C2 .40 differential has 41.7% chance of an upset, C3 has a 40% chance and C4 is at 30%. The .41-99 difference is even more pronounced as C2 is at 11.1% upset risk, C3 is 10% and C4 is 6.7%. 

For the non-math folks out there, what that all means is Class 1 can be quite unpredictable, and in many cases, quite fun (depending on what side of it you’re, on, of course!). Or, chaos…

Thursday was arguably the biggest night of the season in C2, as six championships were decided. The one we figured to be a coin-flip, basically was. D3 #18 Principia and #6 Orchard Farm had to settle things in OT before Principia advanced 2-1. They will host #11 Father Tolton, who rallied from a 1-0 halftime deficit against #17 Southern Boone, scoring twice in the first five minutes of the second half for a 2-1 win. In D1 action, #13 Perryville escaped a strong challenge from #31 St. Pius X (Festus), winning 3-2. C2’s top team Springfield Catholic continued on its magical season, eliminating #4 Logan-Rogersville 4-0. Out west, #16 Harrisonville ousted #14 Pleasant Hill 2-0 and #24 Maryville became the first 3-seed to win a district when it shocked #27 and 1 seed Excelsior Springs 2-1 in OT. The top seeds in D6 scuffled a bit last night, but both advanced. #5 Marshall held off #34 Osage 3-1, while #12 Helias need OT to get past #21 Clinton 2-1.

C3’s biggest upset of the night came when 5-seed and #32 Webb City topped 1-seed Willard 1-0, setting up a meeting with 2-seed Carl Junction, who held off host Parkview 1-0. The most drama of the night was in Jeff City where #10 Summit Christian took down a solid #20 Borgia squad 1-0. Host #15 Capital City made two early goals stand up in a 2-1 win over #24 Camdenton. D4 had a blowout (top seed Ft. Zumwalt East over Hannibal) and a nail-biter with #8 Ft. Zumwalt South edging #17 Lutheran St. Charles 3-2 in OT. D1 also had small scare with top seed #22 Notre Dame holding on to a 1-0 win over a game #30 West Plains squad. #38 Poplar Bluff jumped out on host #26 Cape Central early in a 4-0 win. The D2 final is set with local rivals Rockwood Summit and Webster Groves set to meet tonight. WG ended #23 Pacific’s school-record season, 5-0, Summit topped Mehlville 4-2. Finally, in D8 action, #3 Van Horn continued its strong season with a 3-1 win over East. #18 Lincoln Prep awaits Van Horn as LP upset #11 Northeast 4-2, handing the Vikings their only loss after 22 wins to open the year.

C4 play also had some stunners as some Final Four favorites went home early. #5 Rock Bridge saw #21 Blue Springs South score twice in the second half en route to a 2-1 stunner in D7, handing the Bruins only its second loss. Two STL giants also are out. #11 Francis Howell stunned #10 CBC 2-1 in OT, and will meet backyard rival #8 Francis Howell Central, 1-0 winners over #6 DeSmet. The defending champs SLUH are in another final after slipping by Kirkwood 1-0. The Jr. Bills await the Ladue/Parkway West winner. #24 Vianney hasn’t had a typical year, but they are back in the district finals after edging Jackson 1-0, setting up a final with #4 Oakville, who had little trouble taking down #30 Northwest 5-1. It won’t be much of a surprise to know that #1 Rockhurst also is in the playoffs again, but the 2-1 win over #31 Lee’s Summit North was much closer than many imagined.

Next week: 15 championships over two days…14 Monday and one Tuesday with the quarters set across the state for next Saturday. 

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November 5, 2025 - Districts o’Plenty (Blog #2)

Two days of early round district play on beautiful Fall nights in MO lead us into another perfect Wednesday night and our first championship match.  In C1, #3 Metro takes on #23 Brentwood in the first final of the week. Metro has already topped Brentwood this year 7-1 and sit as +1.62 MPR favorites. Everywhere else tonight will have 17 semifinals and 33 1-4 seeds filling those spots. The only exception is #5 seed Lutheran (KC) who has a big challenge against #4 Barstow on tap. #32 Lutheran is coming off the biggest upset win (-1.93) of the tournament after eliminating #11 Frontier 2-1 in 2OT earlier.

So far we’ve had 120 playoff games and only six would be considered real upsets, although several top seeds did have some close calls in early round games. We’ve also had 14 games decided with extra time or penalties.

In C4, #5 Rock Bridge outscored #39 Grain Valley 5-4 to advance and #3 Ladue gutted out a 1-0 win over #25 Parkway South. Defending champ SLUH came in as huge favorites over #47 Eureka but had to hold to a 1-0 win. Tonight’s spotlight games are in Republic at the D5 semis. #14 Glendale is favored over the host school in one semi, while rivals #28 Nixa and #19 Ozark are separated by just .18 in the MPR. D4 has the Backyard Bash with #9 Ft. Zumwalt West (+1.26) and #38 Timberland in one semi and  #12 St. Dominic (+.24) battling #16 Liberty in the other. The D8 semis also kick off tonight - the spotlight there on Liberty teams. #15 and Liberty and #17 Liberty North are basically dead even. Liberty has just one loss on the year - to top seed #29 Park Hill South - which basically cost the Blue Jays the 1 seed.

C3 has also had a few scary moments for top seeded and #1 Chaminade. The Red Devils had all they could handle with a solid #6 Parkway Central squad before winning 1-0 in what could be the most competitive district in that class. #2 Westminster and #7 Priory face off in the other semi there tonight at Priory for the right to play Chaminade. Tonight also has the top four seeds in D7 in action at Pembroke Hill. The #9 hosts are favored over Belton, while #12 St. Michael has a +1.14 advantage over#47 Raytown in the other semi.

C2 defending champ and D2 2-seed Clayton is #2 overall in the class, but faces a challenging few days if it wants a shot at repeating. Clayton plays 19-win #8 Bayless in the semis, while top-seed Affton is #3 in the MPR. #10 Lutheran South hopes to pull the upset there on its home turf. Should be a great night there. A couple of minor upsets pushed 3 seeds into finals. #31 St. Pius X (Festus) pounded 2-seed Sullivan 7-0 in D1, while #17 Southern Boone avenged an earlier loss to #15 Kirksville. SBC will play #11 and top seed Father Tolton Thursday.

C1 also has D6 action tonight with 1-seed Laquey (#16) and 4-seed Fair Grove (#13) are actually flipped in MPR so the 4-seed is slightly favored, while #9 Dixon (+.43) and #17 Greenwood play in the other semi.

Coming tomorrow…a 5-year look at how the MPR has worked when predicting matchups. For all you numbers folks out there, this will be a fun look into how our model has improved with predictions and how rank matchups going forward. As always, soccer “math” doesn’t always work out because the game has that significant factor (like hockey) where 1) it’s difficult to score and 2) GK’s can make a huge difference in results (see: USA Hockey 1980 Miracle on Ice).

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November 3, 2025 - Welcome to Postseason Soccer! (Blog #1)

A big week ahead as postseason play continues tonight after a 41-game slate (well, technically 40 as we had our first postseason forfeit with Cardinal Ritter bowing out to Crossroads) Saturday. Tonight and tomorrow will be the heaviest schedule of games - 40 each - before we start getting to our first finals Wednesday. MSHSAA has lengthened the district window over the past few years so we will be seeing finals early next week, as well. Six days ahead with championships played on them means meaningful soccer for the state over the next eight days - always fun!

As mentioned, the playoffs kicked off Saturday and we already had our first significant upset when Class 2 #39 Duchesne (seeded 6th) surprised #20 and 3 seed St. Charles 2-1. St. Charles had a .86 advantage in the Mo Power Rankings (MPR), putting it outside the “upset window” of .40. Otherwise, it was pretty much status quo as all other games followed MPR predictions. There were a couple of games where the seeds didn’t play out - both 5 seeds over 4’s (Oak Grove over Odessa and Grain Valley over Fort Osage). 

Before we get into Saturday’s winners and a quick preview of the classes, we will put this here…an explanation (for the new followers) and a review (for the seasoned fan) regarding our MPR results that we use to rank the teams.

How to approach reading the MSPR as a coach or fan:
Based on multiple years of MSPR data from both the boys' and girls' sides, we can draw some conclusions. It's important to note that the team with the higher ranking or point total doesn't always secure a victory. After all, this is a game played by teenagers, and each match is unique with varying matchups against opponents (i.e. injuries, home field advantage, rivalry match, travel, too many games in a short span of time, etc). However, a point differential of 0.4 appears to be the threshold where 'upsets' occur more frequently. Roughly eighty percent of all upsets, as per the PR, happen when teams are within 0.4 points of each other. This could be considered a minor upset. The remaining twenty percent is usually not far from that 0.4 threshold. There are still occasional instances when a 'major' upset happens, and the point spread is considerably different. In any case, it's crucial for every team to approach their opponents with respect, but keep an eye out for those teams within 0.4 points. It should make for a good competitive game. 
Side note: This data is sourced from the postseason, when teams have played a substantial number of games and the highest amount of data is accessible for use.

And now back to the games…or more specifically a quick look into what could be the most interesting districts in each class. 

Class 4
#1 Rockhurst (D6), #4 Oakville (D1) and #5 Rock Bridge (D7) all have a decided edge in their districts as the only top 20 squads in each. The other five districts could get real interesting - especially D2 where two of last year’s state champs (#2 SLUH in C4 and #3 Ladue in C3) are joined by #7 Parkway West and #13 Kirkwood. Ladue is one of the rare public schools to move up with the Championship Factor in place and not because of that, but because of a growing enrollment and also likely because a few schools in C4 opted out of playing the postseason, thus bumping the Rams up. District 3 also looks to be challenging, with #10 CBC (the 1 seed), #6 DeSmet (seeded 2) and host #8 Francis Howell Central (3rd) all in the mix. Two huge CBC wins over DeSmet in the regular season emphasize how important those head to head games are. The D4 backyard battles will continue again this season as neighbors #9 Ft. Zumwalt West, #12 St. Dominic and #16 Liberty all vie for that playoff berth. The SW area looks to be a two-team battle between #14 Glendale and #19 Ozark, but Ozark will have to get by rival Nixa (#28), a team they lost to just over a week ago. In the NW part (D8), #29 Park Hill South is the 1 seed, but #15 Liberty and #17 Liberty North are actually ranked higher. 

Class 3
 Parity is the word in D1 where #22 Cape Notre Dame is the 1 seed - the lowest 1 seed in any class. D2 has #5 Rockwood Summit and rival #13 Webster Groves on a likely crash course, while D3 has already sorted through its cast of soccer heavyweights and now pared down to #1 Chaminade (a winner over 8-time champ Whitfield Saturday), #6 Parkway Central (ousted perennial power John Burroughs 3-1 Saturday), #2 Westminster and #7 Priory. All 4 of those schools (and coaches) have won previous titles, so expect high quality play there. D4 will likely see the Zumwalt schools (#4 East and #8 South) squaring off when it counts. Only three top 10 squads are in District 5-8 and each (#3 Van Horn, #9 Pembroke Hill and #10 Summit Christian) will be fighting to get through tricky districts with each having teams in the top 20 eager to advance. Summit Christian will also have to travel to Jeff City three times, which could play a factor. D6 also could be very competitive with #19 Willard as the 1 seed and three other schools within a few MPR points from them.

Class 2
This class, from the beginning, looks to be quite top heavy. #1 Springfield Catholic has been the dominant squad all year and leads the state with 24 wins and only one setback, but D5 is as solid as they come with #4 Logan-Rogersville, #7 Bolivar and #9 Monett already in the semis. LR has been to the last two final fours and Monett has a history of being a thorn in the Irish side. The winner of that will likely get the winner of #5 Marshall and #12 Helias in the quarters, so no easy path for any of those teams. D7 and D8 is anyone’s guess…#14 Pleasant Hill heads the D7 group, But #19 Center and #16 Harrisonville are right there. In D8 #27 and 1 seed Excelsior Springs looks for a return to the Final Four after having its 3-year run ended last season. #23 Smithville, down from C3 this year, and #24 Maryville are the biggest challengers. The top district is D2, where #3 and 1 seed Affton heads a group with #2 Clayton (last year’s C2 champ and 2 seed in the district), #8 Bayless and #10 Lutheran South. #13 Perryville is the favorite in D1, while #18 Principia is the 1 seed over #6 Orchard Farm even though the two didn’t play this season. #11 Father Tolton heads the D4 grouping, but #11 Kirksville, #17 Southern Boone and host #22 Moberly have all played each other close this year.

Class 1
42 teams are vying for the C1 crown this year and two have been at the top of the rankings all year. #1 Veritas Christian (D3) and #2 St. Mary’s (D1) have owned the top spot all year, with St. Mary’s taking the first three rankings and Veritas the last three. St. Mary’s will have to get by last year’s C1 champ #12 Valley Park, while Veritas’ biggest obstacle looks to be #15 Lutheran North. D7 in KC should also be a fun watch. #4 Barstow heads that group, but #6 Lone Jack, #10 Cristo Rey and #11 Frontier will look to prove otherwise. D6 1 seed Laquey is #16 in the MPR and 2 seed Dixon is #9 after Lquey topped Dixon earlier in the year. D5 #5 Sacred Heart is the heavy favorite there, while MSHSAA playoff newcomer #7 Christian Fellowship seeks a playoff spot in its first year at host #26 Fatima. D2 1 seed #3 Metro has been lurking all year and would likely get a rematch with St. Mary’s if they can advance past #14 Maplewood and #23 Brentwood.

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