MO Soccer Blog
December 5 - Boys '23 Final Blog - Strength of Schedule and more
by Admin on 12/05/23
The boys season concluded a little over two weeks ago and we have been busy with end of the season awards, recognition and all the odds and ends that go with our association. Our final blog of 2023 focuses on wrapping up the boys season and a little bit of fun at the end.
First off, congratulations to the 2023 state champs - first timers Westminster Christian (C2) and East (KC) (C3) joined the championship school list, while Duchesne (C1) added its third title and first since 2003. A huge congrats to Rockhurst, who not only won its 10th title (T-2nd for most overall), but also its third in a row and even topped that with a United Soccer Coaches National Championship! The ending of the C4 game with a very worthy Park Hill South squad certainly will be considered one of the more epic finishes to a championship.
In the week that followed the finals we were able to release our All Region and All State players, while also selecting our MO All Americans and All Central Region players for the United Soccer Coaches. Those players were selected after nominations from coaches and a state-wide voting process. Our number of players are determined by how many coaches we have registered with the United Soccer Coaches and players honored must have coaches who are members of the United Soccer Coaches. The MO list is in our Boys Awards section of our website.
In addition, we also honored our Coaches of the Year with the United Soccer Coaches. There are three categories and three honorees who will now be up for the Regional Coach of the Year Award (the Central Region has six states - MO, KS, IL, SD, ND and MT) and regional winners are then up for the National Coach of the Year, which will be announced in January at the convention in Anaheim. This year’s winners: Large - Gerzo Guerrero (East KC), Small - Brett Wubbena (Logan-Rogersville) and Private - Daniel Legters (Westminster Christian).
Our Boys Academic Teams were also announced last week - we have expanded the fields over the past few years to included a Small and a Large School Academic Team and as always we had an impressive list of nominations and honorees. We factor in three different areas (Academics/School, Soccer and Community) and the impact that each student-athlete has to his respective program.
This week we will be sorting out our final awards - Assistant Coach of the Year, Team Sportsmanship Award, Field of the Year, Select Brand Coach of the Year, Administrator of the Year and Champion of the Game. Those will be announced sometime next week.
Unfortunately, we were not able to have a banquet this year to celebrate all the accomplishments from the year that was. We have provided free digital All Region, All State and All Academic certificates to the coaches to print as needed and have a small window open for any of those players (Boys or Girls) who won any of the All State or Academic Awards to order plaques and T-shirts. (Sorry, no All Region plaques are available.) The deadline to order awards WITH T-SHIRTS is DECEMBER 11 and the PLAQUES ONLY deadline is DECEMBER 15. We hope to have all of these shipped out in early-mid January. Details and a link to order are on our main web page.
Finally, we have posted the 2023 Boys Strength of Schedule with a slight tweak this year that has sent us down a few hypothetical rabbit holes. We broke the schools down by success (using our MO Power Rankings) over THIS season into four “classes” and a team’s Strength of Schedule was formed by multiplying the Opponent’s Win Percentage with an adjusted Average Class Size Played against.
In the past, we used MSHSAA’s classifications (the four classes used in the state playoff system) as one of our multipliers, but we figured a better indication of the strength of schedule was by the success of the team played against and not just a designated class size mostly done by enrollment. The reality is that there are some C1 teams who are stronger than C4 teams so we wanted to get a better representation of how difficult the schedules were based on success during the 2023 season. For example, C1 finalists Duchesne (31st) and Bishop DuBourg (35th) each had MPR scores that would place them in the C4 category, so playing against them gave a “4” toward Opponent Size instead of a “1” if we used the MSHSAA classifications.
The “new” classes are at the bottom of the Overall Strength of Schedule page. These were based on MPR scores at the end of the year. Interestingly enough, there were 8-10 schools whose MPR class would have changed if we had used the final regular season (10-27) MPR. For the competition purists out there, these four new classes would likely have made for a better match of alike teams as an end of the season tournament (about as close to our own promotion/relegation as we can get). Again, MSHSAA’s direction is to have the state tournament based on enrollment and geographical representation - our toying with the system is just for fun, but it does lead to some interesting possibilities if explored.
For example, one of the big concerns with the current MSHSAA system is that it often leads to huge mismatches in tournament play - games that end early and usually with some unfortunate scores (MSHSAA “mercy” rules stipulate that a game ends when their is an 8-goal difference, but at least 40 mins must be played, so we ended up wth some games that were won by more than 8 goals). None of this is great for the teams, players or the sport itself. In fact, there were 20 tournament games with MPR differences of 2.0 and higher. The average score difference in those 20 games was 7.45. There were also 20 games played with an MPR difference of 1.51-1.99. The average goal differential in those games was 5.35.
In short, roughly 1/6 of the matches played in the state tournament pitted teams in the same MSHSAA class, but not in the same “competitive class.” As the differences in “competitive class” dropped, the games became closer. An MPR difference of 1-1.5 in 28 games played had an average goal differential of 4, but once the MPR difference went to under 1, the goal difference in games dropped to 2.36 over 153 games, which meant that MOST of those games pitted two teams of similar capabilities at least based on final scores.
There were only four teams who won games with an MPR score difference of -1.0 and above in the tournament, with STEAM’s 5-3 win over Soldan setting the mark as the biggest upset (-1.80). The other three upsets were all closer to -1.0 (St. Charles West over City -1.18, Saxony Lutheran over Perryville -1.07 and Northwest over Jackson -1.05).
As a point of reference, our “new” classes looked like this - again they are at the bottom of the overall Strength of Schedule page:
Class 4: MPR of 3.5 and above (37 teams).
Class 3: MPR of 2.8-3.4999 (60 teams)
Class 2: MPR 2-2.7999 (73 teams)
Class 1: MPR of 1.999 and below (53 teams)
We posted an overall list as well as each (MSHSAA) class for easier reference.
One thing to note, playing a stronger schedule can be both a benefit (Ladue being a prime example - reaching the C3 finals with a 12-15 mark but the 16th toughest schedule overall) and a drawback (STL power conference MCC didn’t have one FF team this year but all 5 teams finished in the top 9 of SoS and MPR which just goes to show how difficult it is to even reach a FF).
Our state champion with the highest Strength of Schedule, Rockhurst, had the 20th toughest schedule BUT the lowest SoS of the C4 Final Four teams. Westminster Christian (60) was the only state champ to have the toughest schedule in the Final Four (and #2 overall in C2 behind Barstow). East (KC) (77) also played the easiest schedule of the C3 FF teams (a contrasting to runner-up Ladue) while Duchesne (103) was behind runner-up Bishop DuBourg (59) but ahead of Maryville and Laquey.
And with that…we are mostly done with the 2023 season.
Don’t forget to order those awards and have a great, safe and healthy holiday and new year ahead!
November 16, Quarterfinal Recap Blog #11
by Admin on 11/16/23
November 16, Final Four Preview Blog #11
We’ve reached the beginning of the end - the championship weekend awaits!
What started in early August with 224 schools is now down to a final 16 - four in each class - as Missouri’s 56th state soccer concludes at World Wide Technology Soccer Park in Fenton. Each class has at least one repeat from last year’s final four weekend, but only one (C4 Rockhurst) actually won. Two schools (Rockhurst and Excelsior Springs) are making their third straight appearance, while three (Laquey, Logan-Rogersville and Westminster Christian) make final four debuts. Three schools (Bishop DuBourg, Orchard Farm, East (KC)) return after near championship misses last year. Bishop DuBourg lost to eventual champion Borgia 2-1 in the semis, while Orchard Farm and East (KC) both fell in the finals in penalties.
Since implementing the Championship Factor (a system that adjusts private/parochial success and moves those schools up classes based on success over a six-year cycle) prior to the 2020 season, eight of the 12 finals have been decided by one goal (two in penalties, one in OT) and going back the last six years, 18 of the 24 state championship games were one goal finals. Based on the teams represented this year, it would not be a shock to see that trend continue.
The largest margin of victories in the past six years were each three goal wins from Lutheran St. Charles, Ft. Zumwalt South, John Burroughs and Priory, but the trend as of late has been a highly competitive final four weekend.
Private schools have held a significant lead in soccer championships in the history of the state playoff system, although the public schools (particularly in C2 and C3) have leveled that a bit. Over the past six years, private schools won 15 titles (C4 - 5, C3 - 0, C2 - 5, C1 - 5) compared to nine public school championships (C4 - 1, C3- 6, C2 - 1, C1 - 1). (For context, private schools make up roughly 1/4 of the entire soccer-playing schools.)
Interesting to note is that Marshall (2022 C2 champ) is the only school from the Class 1 and 2 championships (public and private) over the years that has competed in the same class it won in this year.
Since MO went to four classes in 2014…
*Only four schools have won the C3 title: Webster Groves (3), Ft. Zumwalt South (3), Rockwood Summit (2), Parkway Central (1).
*There have been eight different C1 champs in the nine years - only Barstow (2014, 2018) has won two. None of the FF teams in C1 have a title during that time and only (Duchesne - 1994, 2003) has won before.
*Perryville (2014) and Marshall (2022) are the only public schools to win a C2 title. This year only #1 Westminster Christian remains from the private schools.
*C4 #1 Rockhurst has won three titles since 2014, but two wins this weekend could mean even more…previous national #1 Cincinnati Moeller fell in its state final, paving way for the Hawklets to move to the top of the United Soccer Coaches most recent poll. A state championship could very likely mean a national title. Rockhurst finished 14th in last year’s final ranking.
**For those interested in watching from the comfort of their own home, all games will be broadcast live at https://www.mshsaa.tv/ (subscription/payment required - $15.75 allows you to watch all weekend). Tickets for each day are $10 and can be purchased online at https://www.mshsaa.org/CMSPages/Tickets.aspx.**
Class 1 - Friday
#1 Bishop DuBourg (22-3) (+.51) vs. #3 Maryville (16-3) 10 AM Field 2
This is the first meeting between the top-seeded Cavaliers and the Spoofhounds…the teams didn’t play one common opponent this season…Each team has experience at the Final Four with Bishop DuBourg finishing third last season and Maryville third in 2021…BDB has an edge in schedule strength having played final four teams Duchesne (L 3-1, W 2-1 (OT)), Westminster Christian ( L 2-1), Springfield Catholic (W 2-0). Maryville defeated C# Final Four Excelsior Springs 3-2.
Final Fours including this season (last appearance) - BDB (5 - 2022), MV (2 - 2021)
Playoff appearances - BDB 8, MV - 6
Best finish (year) - BDB 2nd (1977, 1979), MV 3rd (2021)
Current Win streak - BDB - 11, MV - 5
#2 Duchesne (20-7) (+1.50) vs. #16 Laquey (12-11) Noon Field 2
First meeting between the two teams. Duchesne edged Father Tolton Saturday in a quarterfinal 1-0, while Laquey lost to Tolton 6-0. The biggest MPR mismatch of the Final Four as Duchesne has been at the top of the rankings all year while Laquey limped into the playoffs with two losses to end the year, but found its way to its first FF appearance. Laquey ended the 2022 season as the #1 MPR C1 team, but got upset in the district finals by New Covenant.
Final Fours (last appearance) - D (7 - 2007), L (first appearance)
Playoff appearances - D 17, L - 7
Best finish (year) - D 1st (1994, 2003), L none
Current Win streak - D - 5, L - 3
Saturday
Third Place 11 AM
Championship 10 AM
Class 2 - Friday
#1 Westminster Christian (19-5) (+.93) vs. #16 Excelsior Springs (14-5) 2:30 PM Field 2
First meeting between the teams. No common opponents this season. The Wildcats finally got over the hump and reached its first FF after entering the playoffs in 2022 as the overall #1 and falling to Orchard Farm in the district finals. WC started the season 1-2 and has four one-goal losses on the season. Three of its five losses are FF teams (Burroughs twice, Ladue in OT). ES had a bumpy start at 1-3 (including a 3-1 loss to Maryville), but has benefitted from a dynamic offense (4.7 Goals/game) to win 13 of 15. ES has the experience but WC has the season’s best credentials on its side.
Final Fours (last appearance) - WC (first appearance), ES (3 - 2022)
Playoff appearances - WC 3, ES - 5
Best finish (year) - WC none, ES 2nd (2004)
Current Win streak - WC - 4, ES - 10
#4 Orchard Farm (23-2) vs. #2 Logan-Rogersville (25-0) (+.06) 5 PM Field 2
First meeting, no common opponents. This could be one of the better matches of the day where something will have to give. Both teams score at over 4/game and hold opponents to under .7 goals/game, but more importantly, neither team has lost a game in over two months. OF fell to Duchesne 3-2 Sept. 5 and lost in penalties at Ft. Zumwalt West before that, but that’s it for either team. OF has been especially dominant in the playoffs - winning four games by a combined 27-0 margin and have 17 shutouts on the season. LR has been just as good in the postseason, winning its three games by 15-0 margin. The Wildcats have a win over C3 FF Springfield Catholic 2-0 and have posted 19 shutouts in their 25 games. One thing to note about this game - it’s the late one on Field 2, not known for the best lighting.
Final Fours (last appearance) - OF (2 - 2022), LR (first appearance)
Playoff appearances - OF 4, LR - 2
Best finish (year) - OF 2nd (2020, 2022), LR none
Current Win streak - OF - 21, LR - 25
Saturday
Third Place 2:30 PM
Championship 4 PM
Class 3 - Friday
#1 Rockwood Summit (19-4-1) (+.84) vs. #3 East (KC) (17-2) 11 AM Field 1
Second meeting - Summit beat East 2-1 in 2017 Rock Bridge’s Tournament. No common opponents. If you’re planning on going to see Friday’s games, you may want to get there early because this one has “potential classic” written all over it, even with RS holding a sizable MPR advantage. Summit has looked the part of #1 most of the season and hasn’t lost since a 3-2 OT defeat at Kirkwood Sept. 30 despite a demanding all C3 and C4 schedule that included 18 games against teams with winning records (one of those teams is on the other side of the bracket in Ladue - RS won that 2-0 Sept. 5). Since losing to Van Horn Sept. 7 the Bears have been on a rampage - outscoring opponents 91-5 in its 14-game winning streak. The schedule strength doesn’t equate to RS, but the Bears proved last year that they are a title-worthy team.
Final Fours (last appearance) - RS (4 - 2019), E (2 - 2022)
Playoff appearances - RS 13, E - 4
Best finish (year) - RS 1st (2016, 2019), E 2nd (2022)
Current Win streak - OF - 12, E - 14
#16 Ladue (11-14) vs. #8 Springfield Catholic (19-8) (+.34) 1:30 PM Field 1
First meeting, no common opponents. Ladue enters the FF weekend as the only team under .500, but that mark is a bit misleading due to a four game forfeit stretch in mid-September. The Rams knocked out defending champs Webster Groves in the district semis and then won a district title with nine players on the field against Whitfield before finally getting past Ft. Zumwalt South in the quarters after losing to the Bulldogs in the playoffs three previous times. Ladue has played six playoff teams this year, beating Westminster Christian 2-1 in OT, FZS 1-0 and losing to Lindbergh, CBC, Burroughs and Summit. Springfield Catholic is one of two teams remaining playing in a classification higher (Burroughs is the other) because of previous success, but Catholic hasn’t been to a FF since 2014 in C2. The Irish started the program with seven consecutive FF trips, winning twice in the smaller classes. A 6-5 start wouldn’t have signaled a FF run, but the Irish swapped some players around midseason and the efforts have paid off. Catholic only won two of its five games against playoff teams (both against 10-18 Springfield Central), while losing to Ozark, Logan-Rogersville and Bishop DuBourg.
Final Fours (last appearance) - L (2 - 2021), SC (8 - 2014)
Playoff appearances - L 11, SC - 12
Best finish (year) - L 2nd (2021), SC 1st (2011, 2012)
Current Win streak - L - 5, SC - 5
Saturday
Third Place 12:00 PM
Championship 1:30 PM
Class 4 - Friday
#9 Lindbergh (22-5) vs. #5 Park Hill South (19-2-1) (+.14) 4 PM Field 1
First meeting, no common opponents. Lindbergh is arguably one of the hotter teams entering the FF, having knocked out two MCC powers (Vianney and CBC) to get there. The 3-0 quarterfinal win over last year’s runners-up CBC was particularly impressive and a 10-0 neutral field record also puts the Flyers in a good place to reach its second finals despite being the MPR underdog. Park Hill South enters on a 13-game unbeaten streak (tying Rock Bridge 1-1 in late October before finishing the Bruins in Saturday’s quarters 2-0). The Panthers survived a scare in penalties against Liberty in the district semis and got past rival Park Hill 2-1 in the finals, so it hasn’t been a relaxing postseason by any means. Twelve of the last 14 games have been decided by 1 or 2 goals, so another close one Friday afternoon would be status quo, especially with two teams who have performed almost identically all season. Lindbergh is averaging 3.4 goals/game and giving up 1, while PHS is at 3.2 and .9.
Final Fours (last appearance) - L (4 - 2019), PHS (3 - 1999)
Playoff appearances - L 11, PHS - 11
Best finish (year) - L 1st (1994), PHS 2nd (1998)
Current Win streak - L - 5, PHS - 6
#13 John Burroughs (18-5) vs. #1 Rockhurst (22-0) (+.87) 7 PM Field 1
Second meeting - Rockhurst topped JB 2-1 in the 2021 C4 semis. No common opponents. These two are no strangers to the big time - as both are considered in the elite tier of MO soccer over the years. The Bombers have collected most of their hardware in the smaller classes and were expected to fade into the background when pushed into C4 with heavyweights like SLUH and Chaminade in their district, but JB didn’t get that memo, reaching its second FF as a C4 school in the past three years. The 2021 squad was a huge underdog in the semis but made it close against eventual champ Rockhurst. With an enrollment of just 344 (Rockhurst is at 1392, Lindbergh 1688 and Park Hill South 1489) the Bombers have another tall task at hand, but are guided by one of the state’s best coaches in Alan Trzecki and are used to playing the big boys. Rockhurst is also led by one of MO’s best in Matt Darby and not much more can be said about what is on the line for the Hawklets this weekend. A national title, a third straight championship (joining only a handful of schools to ever do it) and an undefeated season mean that the Hawklets have the biggest target on their backs. The playoffs have pushed the Rock, too. Ozark came within a goal in the quarters and Ray-Pec nearly stunned them in the district finals, erasing a late 2-0 lead before falling in OT on a penalty.
Final Fours (last appearance) - JB (10 - 2021), R (28 - 2022)
Playoff appearances - JB 18, R - 41
Best finish (year) - JB 1st (2008, 2013, 2016, 2018), R 1st (1998, 1999, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2022)
Current Win streak - JB - 7, R - 31 (last loss 10-14-22, 2-1 to Chaminade)
Saturday
Third Place 5 PM
Championship 7 PM
November 14, Quarterfinal Recap Blog #10
by Admin on 11/14/23
November 14, Boys Postseason Blog #10
Quarterfinals complete…Final Four weekend ahead!
A great Saturday across MO has brought it all down to one weekend and big hopes for the eight survivors, which included a fun run for teams ranked 16th as three of the state’s #16 ranked squads advanced and the other had a near miss.
A quick recap today and then on Thursday we will release a specific Final Four preview edition.
Class 1
The top three teams based on MPR all advanced, but only the top team team cruised Saturday, leading to a tense day in the state’s smallest class. #1 Bishop DuBourg pulled away from #4 Metro 4-0 at DuBourg and will enter this weekend as the team to beat. BDB finished third last season and has taken out the #4 and #5 teams in consecutive games. #2 Duchesne had all it could handle at home with #6 Father Tolton before scoring midway through the first OT to advance to its first semi since 2007. #3 Maryville made the nearly four-hour trip to Carl Junction a worthwhile one, but it wasn’t easy against #12 College Heights. CH, making its first postseason appearance since 2004, scored first early in the second half, but the Spoofhounds rallied with two goals inside a minute apart a short time later and held on for a 2-1 win. Maryville returns for the first time since 2021’s third place squad. In Stover, #16 Laquey broke through in its seventh attempt at a postseason win, getting an OT goal to eliminate #19 Stover, who was making its first postseason appearance.
Class 2
All three of the top remaining seeds punched a ticket to the final four with convincing wins Saturday, but it was #16 Excelsior Springs’ 3-1 win over #6 Harrisonville that provided the big story of the day. ES won its third straight over the Wildcats, with the last two being 3-1 playoff wins, and advanced to its third consecutive final four where it has back-to-back third places. #1 Westminster Christian took a 2-0 halftime lead and rode its defense to a shutout win over the high-scoring Cougars at Affton. WC advanced to its first final four. #2 Logan-Rogersville will also debut in a final four Friday after a convincing 3-0 win over #10 Sacred Heart in Rogersville. The Wildcats join C4 Rockhurst as one of two undefeated squads in St. Louis. Last year’s runner-up, #4 Orchard Farm, had no problems with #20 Fulton, scoring four in each half for a mercy-rule win. OF has finished second twice in its two appearances (2020, 2022).
Class 3
A Friday night showdown between #1 Rockwood Summit and #3 East (KC) looms after each advanced with three-goal wins. Summit trailed early at #22 Farmington, but poured it on from there, winning 4-1. East took the opposite approach, rolling out to a 4-1 lead over rival #4 Van Horn, before finishing a 5-2 win. East was the C3 runner-up last year, while Summit returns for the first time since winning in 2019. The other side of the bracket has plenty of intrigue as well, with #16 Ladue continuing its unlikely run after topping #21 Ft. Zumwalt South 1-0 on a late second-half goal.The Rams will play #8 Springfield Catholic, 4-0 winners over upstart Springfield Central. The Irish led 1-0 at half, and after a near Central miss, scored on a counter shortly after before two late goals finished the deal. SC hasn’t been to a final four since 2014 (the last of seven in a row that included 2011 and 2012 titles in the small classes), while Ladue is two years removed from finishing second in C3.
Class 4
As expected with eight quality sides remaining in C4, Saturday was going to be a grind for anyone who advanced. #1 Rockhurst took down another difficult challenger - this time #11 Ozark on the road. The Hawklets got out to a 2-0 lead before surviving an Ozark goal and final push to remain undefeated and on target for its third consecutive C4 title. #13 John Burroughs is up next after the Bombers clawed past #8 Liberty (Wentzville) 2-1 on the strength of a late header off a corner. Liberty played a good portion of the match with 10 men after losing its GK to a “last man” (DOGSO) foul that resulted in a 1-0 JB lead on a penalty. The Eagles equalized in the 52nd on a free kick strike, but couldn’t find another in the final moments. The Rockhurst (9)/John Burroughs (4) semi will feature teams that have won a combined 13 state titles. Easily one of the best performances of the day goes to #9 Lindbergh who pulled away from #3 and last year’s finalist CBC 3-0. The Flyers return for the first time since 2019 and will play #5 Park Hill South. The Panthers took out host #16 Rock Bridge (last year’s third place finisher) 2-0 and advance to their first final four as a C4 school. PHS went to back-to-back 1A-3A final fours in its first two years (1998-99), but hasn’t returned.
Previews of the weekend matches to come Thursday!
November 10, Quarterfinal Preview (Blog #9)
by Admin on 11/10/23
November 10, Boys Postseason Blog #9
Quarterfinal Previews
DuBourg is 7-0 against common opponents, while Metro is 4-3. Statistically, these teams are about even…BDB has scored 4.3 goals/game, while Metro has scored at a 4.1/game clip. Both teams have allowed 1.2 goals/game. DuBourg did suffer two of its three losses at home…These two have played each other the past two seasons with DuBourg winning this year 3-0 and Metro last year, 1-0.
#3 Maryville (15-3) (+.88) at #12 College Heights Christian (10-11) (Game is at Carl Junction HS) 2 p.m.
One of the drawbacks of quarterfinals is the potential travel and Maryville’s 236 mile journey to Carl Junction (nearly 4 hours) will likely impact this one…Both teams won against their one common opponent (Lone Jack). CHC rolled 5-1, while Maryville won 3-0. The difference here may be the Spoofhounds defense, which is only allowing .9 goals/match. CHC is giving up 2.8…Maryville survived penalties in the district finals with #7 Cristo Rey, while College Heights shocked #1 seed Lone Jack…First meeting between the two schools.
#6 Father Tolton (14-9) at #2 Duchesne (19-7) (+.31) 12 p.m.
This may be the most competitive quarter in C1…Both teams had relatively easy district weeks, with Duchesne winning 5-0 and 8-0, while Tolton won its matches 8-0 and 4-0. Duchesne does own a 3-1 win over Lutheran St. Charles, while Tolton lost to LSC 3-1. Both teams lost to St. Dominic and Borgia in the regular season by similar scores. One thing to note, Tolton is only 4-6 in away games, while Duchesne is 9-4 at home. This is their first ever meeting.
#16 Laquey (11-11) (+.17) at #19 Stover (16-11) (Location/time TBD)
Laquey slipped past Stover 2-1 in the Stover Classic 10-14 and Laquey (5-2) owns a better record vs. common opponents than Stover (4-3) and has scored more goals/game (4.1 to 3.7), but that number is inflated due to a 16-0 win over Iberia. Stover’s defense has been more stout on the season, giving up one full goal/game less than Laquey. This is Laquey’s 7th attempt to advance to a final four, having never won a postseason game in the previous six attempts. Coach Chris Witte’s Stover squad reached the playoffs for the first time in school history - one that dates back to at least the early mid-late 80’s/early 90’s - after a thrilling 4-3 OT win over Green Ridge. Laquey has won all five previous matches, dating back to 2017.
Class 2
#1 Westminster Christian (18-5) (+.48) at #7 Affton (22-4) 4 p.m.
This should be a fun one as both teams enter the playoffs coming off of big wins over top 8 schools. Affton has much to be excited about - a school record in wins, a 10-0 home mark and winners of 16 of its last 17 ( a 4-0 loss to Seckman its only blemish), although of those 16 wins, only two came against teams with winning records. The big result, was last week’s 5-3 district title win over #8 Bayless. Westminster Christian has been ranked #1 since early October and has won 12 of 14, with both losses to C3 playoff teams (1-0 to Burroughs and 2-1 to Ladue in OT). In fact, WC has only lost to three teams this year - Burroughs and Priory twice and Ladue. A tough 1-0 win over #5 Clayton erased some of the sting of losing last year’s D3 tournament final to Orchard Farm in OT as the overall #1 seed in C2. Defense will be the key in this one - something that WC has excelled at all season, allowing only .9 goals/game. This is the first meeting since 2012, with WC winning the previous four.
#16 Excelsior Springs (13-5) at #6 Harrisonville (17-5-1) (+.47) 6 p.m.
Excelsior Springs will enter as an underdog, but this program has figured out a way to win the past two years, finishing 3rd in both 2021 and 2022. The Tigers haven’t lost since a late September 2-1 defeat at Smithville, a span of nine games. ES can score - it hasn’t been shut out yet - but has also cleaned up its defense in not allowing a goal in two district wins. Harrisonville also hasn’t lost since late September - to KS power Bishop Miege - and held on for a 2-1 district final win over #9 Barstow to advance for the 9th time and first since 2021, when that 10-12-1 squad finished 4th after losing to ES 3-1 in the consolation game. These two both lost to Smithville by a goal, but Harrisonville does own a 2-1 victory over Ft. Osage, while ES lost to FO 2-1. These two teams are no stranger to each other - having played 26 times over the years. Harrisonville leads the overall series 22-4, but ES has won the previous two and three of four.
#20 Fulton (14-10) at #4 Orchard Farm (22-2) (+1.02) (Game will be played at St. Charles West HS) 1 p.m.
Fulton will head to St. Charles winners of seven of its last eight behind an offense that has clicked into gear as of late. The Hornets scored 17 in three district wins and have averaged 4.5 goals on the season. Stopping teams has been the bigger issue, but Fulton has improved of late, getting three of its four shutouts on the year in its last six games. Orchard Farm came within a penalty kick in 2022 of winning the C2 title, but fell to champ Marshall in the finals in a PK shootout. The Eagles have been even better this season - scoring more (3.9 compared to last season’s 2.3), while also giving up fewer goals (.8 goals allowed vs. last season’s .9 mark). A bumpy 2-2 start has given way to 20 consecutive wins, 15 via shutout. OF wasn’t challenged in district play, but did end the season with a solid 2-1 OT result over C3 #7 Ft. Zumwalt East. This is the two teams’ first meeting.
#10 Sacred Heart (23-4) at #2 Logan-Rogersville (24-0) 11 a.m.
A combined 47 wins - the most in a quarterfinal game this year - starts off C2 play Saturday in Rogersville. Host LR has survived three OT games (one PK) this year to stay perfect and may have played its best half of the season in the D5 final, scoring four in the opening half to cruise past #2 seed Bolivar, a team that LR beat by one goal in each of the two previous matchups. The Wildcats finally broke into the postseason in 2021, but fell in penalties to School of the Osage in the district finals that concluded a sterling 21-4 season, but no playoff berth. Sacred Heart returns to the postseason for the first time since finishing second in the 2017 C1 season. As mentioned yesterday, the Gremlins are the smallest school by enrollment left in the tourney in any class and have struggled to repeat its C1 successes of the early 2010s when it made four straight final four appearances. This hasn’t been an easy road for SH, winning all three district games by a goal each, but the Gremlins are on a current 18-game winning streak. Both LR and SH own one goal wins over their only common opponent - Greenwood. This will be the teams’ first ever meeting.
Class 3
#1 Rockwood Summit (18-4-1) (+1.55) at #22 Farmington (13-6) 1 p.m.
On paper, this is the biggest mismatch of Saturday. #1 Summit has been the team to beat all year in C3 and holds a substantial advantage in the MPR standings, but this has all the makings of a possible trap game - the Knights are well-coached, defend well and host this one, so Summit will need to be on upset alert. Farmington scuffled at the end of the regular season, losing its last four, but came alive in district play and advanced in the final over #18 Cape Notre Dame 2-1 in 2OT. If the postseason Knights show, they’ve got a puncher’s chance, but they will need to be near perfect to knock off a Falcons team that is rolling right now. Eleven straight wins since early October - including two over C4 playoff teams John Burroughs (5-0) and Lindbergh (2-1 PK). In all, RS played four C4 playoff teams, going 2-1-1, so the Falcons will be as tested as anyone in the postseason. No doubt the 026 Army will be in full force for this one, as well, which should make for a fun environment. Farmington hopes to make its first ever final four appearance with a win, while Summit is shooting for its third title overall and first since 2019.
#3 East (KC) (+.15) at #4 Van Horn (13-10) 6 p.m.
There may not be a more fun team to watch than East (KC). The Bears run at you with speed and skill while averaging nearly 6 goals/game and have matched the offense with a solid defense that has eight straight shutouts. In fact, East has rattled off 13 wins in a row and are itching at a shot to finish the deal in C3 after a heart-breaking 3-2 finals loss to Webster Groves in penalties last year. East dismantled #5 Platte Co. 5-0 in the district finals. The Bears’ last loss, though? To #4 Van Horn 2-1 Sept. 7 at Van Horn, site of Saturday’s game. Van Horn’s erratic season has given some puzzling results (a week before beating East 2-1, East rolled VH 4-1), but based on the last few weeks, the Falcons have figured something out, topping C3 #2 St. Michael twice - including the district semifinal 2-1 - before eliminating #14 Raytown 2-0 in the D7 finals. Van Horn has been to five playoffs in six years, recently finishing fourth in 2021, so this program knows how to play in the big games. East has a decisive 5-0 advantage against common opponents, while Van Horn is just 2-3, including a puzzling 1-0 2OT loss to Grain Valley, a team East thrashed 7-0. A late start to this one should make for a great environment in Independence.
#21 Ft. Zumwalt South (13-14) at #16 Ladue (10-14) (+.16) 3:30 p.m.
We’ve now reached the bracket buster portion of the previews - if anyone had a FZS-Ladue matchup prior to the playoffs starting, it would’ve been an odd choice. Both teams enter under .500 - one of the few times (if any?) that has happened, especially in the upper classes. Yet, here we are again - the third quarter matchup between these two STL powers and fourth playoff clash between them including FZS’s 2021 2-1 state championship game win since 2014. FZS has won the previous three, but Ladue will go in as the favorite, and for the first time, hosting the Bulldogs. The Rams’ record is also a bit misleading - a 3-5 start prior to the four forfeits midway through the season and a rough stretch against a demanding schedule saw them go 2-5 to end the regular season. From there, though, the Rams have found themselves, eliminating the ’22 champ Webster Groves in the semis 1-0 and then edging perennial power Whitfield 2-1 in the finals. Ladue became the only #5 seed since going to 8 districts to win a district in any class, but will have to contend with missing two starters due to red cards suffered in the finals - a game that Ladue finished with 9 players on the field. FZS didn’t exactly look primed to make a deep run after losing its final two games by a combined 10-2 score, followed by an opening-round 5-4 shootout with North Point. However, the Bulldogs topped #11 Hannibal in the semis 3-1 and shocked #1 seed and #7 Ft. Zumwalt East 2-1 in a rivalry game final, so who knows what these two will have in store Saturday. FZS has won three of the past five C3 championships, but has been under .500 (25-28-1) since last winning in 2021.
#45 Springfield Central (10-17) at #8 Springfield Catholic (18-8) (+.96) 12 p.m.
If there was ever a story of a team getting hot at the right time out of nowhere, it’s Springfield Central. A promising 4-2 start, which included a season-opening 2-1 loss at Catholic, seemed to say that the Bulldogs would be a possible contender in the SW C3 scene, especially in a wide-open D6. That changed quickly, though. A six-game losing streak followed and led to a 3-15 mark over the team’s last 18 matches, including losses in the final seven. Everyone starts 0-0 in the playoffs and Central has found a way, knocking out # Branson 3-2 and #1 Webb City 2-1 to reach its second playoffs. Springfield Catholic fought its way through a competitive D5 district in Jefferson City, winning its first district since 2019 after a remarkable run that saw the Irish make the final four in its first seven years of existence (2008-2014) and back-to-back titles in 2011-2012. Catholic nearly didn’t even see the district finals this year, stunning #2 seed Rolla on a goal with 16 seconds left that forced extra time, where Catholic prevailed 3-2. The Irish made quick work of host Capital City in the finals, scoring twice early and one late for a 3-0 win.
Class 4
#3 CBC (17-6-2) (+.15) at #9 Lindbergh (21-5) 2 p.m.
Historically, this doesn’t look good for Lindbergh, having lost four straight in the series and three times in the playoffs since 2008, but the Flyers get to host and are fresh off a big win over MCC power and #1 seed Vianney 4-3 in OT. These two already played once this year, with CBC winning in penalties at home in late August. CBC, per usual, had to run a gauntlet of quality sides to advance out of districts. The Cadets opened with a 7-0 rout over a solid #18 Priory squad before slipping past #7 Chaminade 1-0 and #2 De Smet 1-0. CBC fell short in last year’s title game against Rockhurst which would’ve tied St. Thomas Aquinas-Mercy with 11 state titles, most in history. Both teams are 5-3 against common opponents.
#5 Park Hill South (18-2-1) (+.58) at #16 Rock Bridge (18-6-3) 1 p.m.
These two will get to finish they started October 21 in the Rock Bridge Shootout where it ended in a 1-1 draw. That was RB’s only blemish over the final seven matches, but there was a scary semifinal moment against #4 Blue Springs when the Bruins had to score with under 30 seconds left to even make the district finals. A much easier time against #2 Blue Springs South led to a 3-0 win, giving the Bruins back to back playoff appearances after a third place in 2022. The record looks better this year, but that was due to RB having to forfeit 13 games over the course of the ’22 campaign. A new set of players has stepped in to replace a talented graduating class and the Bruins have a real solid shot to get back to the final four with the advantage of hosting. PHS is also on a roll, going 11-0-1 to finish the year, which included a big 2-1 victory over rival Park Hill in the D8 final. PHS is shooting for its first C4 final four (it has 2 final four appearances when it was in a smaller class after first opening), while Rock Bridge is hoping to go to its 7th final four.
#8 Liberty (Wentzville) (21-2) (+.18) at #13 John Burroughs (17-5) 12 p.m.
Burroughs has to be hoping that history is repeating itself as it prepares to host Liberty (Wentzville) Saturday. Much like its surprise 2021 run in C4 (after having been C2 in the previous playoff structure), Burroughs will host Liberty after shocking SLUH and Chaminade (this year it was SLUH and Howell North in the districts). The Bombers stopped Liberty 2-0 in 2021 en route to a 3rd place finish and will hope for a similar outcome again. Liberty will be slightly favored again and boasts the better offensive (4.1 goals/game compared to JB’s 2.2) and defensive (.7 goals allowed vs. 1 goal allowed/game for JB). The Eagles didn’t have an easy road in the D4 tourney but survived St. Dominic 1-0 in the finals to get through. After a game two loss to Chaminade in penalties, only Ft. Zumwalt East (3-1 Oct. 17) has topped the Eagles. They’ve only conceded once since then so goals will likely be at a premium in this one.
#1 Rockhurst (21-0) (+.74) at #11 Ozark (24-2-2) 12 p.m.
The first-ever meeting between these two is a study in a veteran program that has been there/done that many times before in Rockhurst versus a dangerous Ozark squad that has never reached a final four despite five district title wins since 2016. Ozark has pounded teams with a dynamic offense that has scored 4.5 goals/game without being shut out, while only allowing .8/game. Ozark got over the hump against Kickapoo in the district semis 2-1 (Kickapoo stopped the 23-5 Tigers in the D5 finals last year) and then took out rival Nixa 3-1 in the finals. Rockhurst also hasn’t played since November 1, when the Hawklets fended off a game Ray-Pec squad 3-2 in OT after leading 2-0 late in the contest. The Rock is undefeated and in a solid position to claim a shot at not only the state title, but also a national title with multiple high school ranking services. Rockhurst has been the model of consistency and excellence in MO, reaching every playoff BUT ONE (2011) since 1984, winning nine, finishing second five times, third eight times and fourth five times. The Hawklets are 2-2 in their last four quarterfinals, though, and Ray-Pec’s near stunner has to be a positive sign for Ozark that Rockhurst, is in fact, beatable.
November 9, Boys Postseason Blog #8
by Admin on 11/09/23
November 9, Boys Postseason Blog #8
Only two more days until a HUGE Saturday in MO Soccer - Quarterfinal day!
An overview blog today… game previews coming tomorrow.
First, a quick correction: Ft. Zumwalt South was a 3 seed and not a 5 seed as mentioned yesterday. Ladue was the only 5 seed (or lower) to advance. Apologies for the error.
Updated MPR rankings for each of the 8 remaining teams in each class. Each private school remaining has a score in parentheses indicating how many Championship Factor points it had entering this year (+ score) and how many points will come off (- score) after this season. This year’s points were not added, although each team will have earned at least one by the time we finish:
Class 1:
1 - Bishop DuBourg (+2, -0)
2 - Duchesne (+2, -1)
3 - Maryville
4 - Metro
6 - Father Tolton (+2, -0)
12 - College Heights Christian (+0, -0)
16 - Laquey
19 - Stover
Highest ranked teams knocked out: Valley Park (5), Cristo Rey (7), MMA (8), St. Mary’s Southside (9), Maplewood-Richmond Heights (10).
Notes: C1 has been the most accurate with regards to MPR, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise as the top six teams in C1 all had MPR scores of over 3.13 with a significant drop (-.46) to #7… Valley Park had the unfortunate draw of meeting #1 Bishop DuBourg in a district final (D1), which also boasted #9 St. Mary’s Southside, the state’s most competitive C1 district… The top 3 teams remaining have all spent time at #1 in MPR this year…Both Tolton (MMA) and Maryville (Cristo Rey) had to beat top 10 teams in district finals, but neither struggled, winning 4-0 and 4-1, respectively against teams that were nearly .50 below them.
Class 2:
1 - Westminster Christian (+0, -0)
2 - Logan-Rogersville
4 - Orchard Farm
6 - Harrisonville
7 - Affton
10 - Sacred Heart (+3, -3)
16 - Excelsior Springs
20 - Fulton
Highest ranked teams knocked out: Summit Christian (3), Clayton (5), Bayless (8), Barstow (9).
Notes: Westminster Christian took over the #1 spot from undefeated Logan-Rogersville in the second rankings and has held firm since…Affton (D1) and Harrisonville (D7) won arguably the most difficult districts, which had three teams each in the top 11. #10 Sacred Heart is the smallest school enrollment-wise (78) left in the tourney in any class. In comparison, C1 #3 Maryville is the largest school left in that class with 380, while C1 #12 College Heights Christian’s enrollment of 134 is the smallest school left in C1. Fulton, while the lowest remaining team in C2 and coming from a district with no one else ranked as high as #22 (Moberly who didn’t make the D4 final), has made a steady climb to #20 from #28 in the 10-16 MPR.
Class 3:
1 - Rockwood Summit
3 - East (KC)
4 - Van Horn
8 - Springfield Catholic (+3, -1)
16 - Ladue
21 - Ft. Zumwalt South
22 - Farmington
45 - Springfield Central
Highest ranked teams knocked out: St. Michael (2), Platte Co. (5), Borgia 6), Ft. Zumwalt East 7), Webster Groves (9), Whitfield (10).
Notes: Rockwood Summit has been on top of the C3 MPR all year…From there, C3 has been unpredictable…Only three teams in the initial MPR (9-26) advanced: Summit, Farmington, East (KC)…MPR #2 (10-3) added one more district winner (Springfield Catholic at #15), with the highest team left from that poll being East (KC) at #10. East, a finalist last year, may have also won the second most competitive district (D8), which had 4 teams in the top 19. Van Horn, the D7 winner, had to navigate through three other top 14 teams to advance as a #4 seed. Springfield Central has been on the soccer roller coaster, debuting at #34 for the first MPR, falling to 47 after a seven-game losing streak to end the regular season and now back to 45, by far the lowest remaining team in any class based on team ranking in that class.
Class 4:
1 - Rockhurst (+16, -4)
3 - CBC (+10, -2)
5 - Park Hill South
8 - Liberty (Wentzville)
9 - Lindbergh
11 - Ozark
13 - John Burroughs (+9, -1)
16 - Rock Bridge
Highest ranked teams knocked out: De Smet (2), SLUH (4), Vianney (6), Chaminade (7), St. Dominic (10).
Notes: #1 Rockhurst has spent all but one week on top of the C4 MPR (SLUH held the spot in the 10-10 poll), while also remaining top 5 nationally all year as well in the United Soccer Coaches rankings. The two-time defending C4 champs have climbed all the way to #2 this week nationally but struggled against #15 Ray-Pec in the D6 finals, winning in OT after nearly blowing a two-goal lead…Last year’s runners-up, CBC, advanced out of the most difficult district (D2), which had three top 7 teams and four in the top 18. D1 winner Lindbergh also had a demanding route in winning there as four schools finished in the top 19. Rock Bridge jumped from 27 in the final regular season MPR to 16, but is still the lowest remaining squad in C4, which just goes to show how the final two weekends will likely be in C4, especially factoring in travel, teams hosting and geographic matchups.
